Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

Lin Pei, Jiangjiang Xia (), Zhongwei Yan and Hui Yang
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Lin Pei: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jiangjiang Xia: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zhongwei Yan: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Hui Yang: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 144, issue 3, No 2, 403 pages

Abstract: Abstract On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1610-8

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