500-yr. precipitation variability in Southern Taihang Mountains, China, and its linkages to ENSO and PDO

Yong Zhang (), Qinhua Tian, Sébastien Guillet and Markus Stoffel
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Yong Zhang: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qinhua Tian: China Meteorological Administration
Sébastien Guillet: University of Berne
Markus Stoffel: University of Berne

Climatic Change, 2017, vol. 144, issue 3, No 4, 419-432

Abstract: Abstract An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 657 yrs. is constructed with Whitebark pine (Pinus bungeana Zucc.) samples from the southern Taihang Mountains, Eastern China. On the basis of a significant correlation between the tree-ring width index and observed instrumental data, precipitation in current May is reconstructed for the region since AD 1510, with predictor variables accounting for 37.9 % of the variance in precipitation data. In agreement with other drought reconstructions, notable dry spells occur in the 1630s–1650s, 1680s–1700s, and 1770s–1800s, whereas wet periods prevail in the 1530s–1570s, 1840s–1870s, and 1950s-present. Wavelet analysis reveals clear 2–8, 20–40, and 80–130 yrs cycles at the 95 % confidence level for the reconstructed series over the past 500 yrs, suggesting possible linkages with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Correlation analysis between the tree-ring series, ENSO, and PDO index further demonstrates that precipitation is negatively correlated with PDO and ENSO in the long term.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1695-0

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