Evaluating opportunities for an increased role of winter crops as adaptation to climate change in dryland cropping systems of the U.S. Inland Pacific Northwest

Claudio O. Stöckle (), Stewart Higgins, Roger Nelson, John Abatzoglou, Dave Huggins, William Pan, Tina Karimi, John Antle, Sanford D. Eigenbrode and Erin Brooks
Additional contact information
Claudio O. Stöckle: Washington State University
Stewart Higgins: Washington State University
Roger Nelson: Washington State University
John Abatzoglou: University of Idaho
Dave Huggins: Northwest Sustainable Agroecosystems Research, USDA-ARS
William Pan: Washington State University
Tina Karimi: Washington State University
John Antle: Oregon State University
Sanford D. Eigenbrode: University of Idaho
Erin Brooks: University of Idaho

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 146, issue 1, No 20, 247-261

Abstract: Abstract The long-term sustainability of wheat-based dryland cropping systems in the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) of the United States depends on how these systems adapt to climate change. Climate models project warming with slight increases in winter precipitation but drier summers for the IPNW. These conditions combined with elevated atmospheric CO2, which promote crop growth and improve transpiration-use efficiency, may be beneficial for cropping systems in the IPNW and may provide regional opportunities for agricultural diversification and intensification. Crop modeling simulation under future climatic conditions showed increased wheat productivity for the IPNW for most of the century. Water use by winter wheat was projected to decrease significantly in higher and intermediate precipitation zones and increase slightly in drier locations, but with winter crops utilizing significantly more water overall than spring crops. Crop diversification with inclusion of winter crops other than wheat is a possibility depending on agronomic and economic considerations, while substitution of winter for spring crops appeared feasible only in high precipitation areas. Increased weed pressure, higher pest populations, expanded ranges of biotic stressors, and agronomic, plant breeding, economic, technology, and other factors will influence what production systems eventually prevail under future climatic conditions in the region.

Keywords: Alternative rotations; Crop modeling; Global climate models; Representative concentration pathways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1950-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1950-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1950-z

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().