Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Chris Swanston (), Leslie A. Brandt, Maria K. Janowiak, Stephen D. Handler, Patricia Butler-Leopold, Louis Iverson, Frank R. Thompson, Todd A. Ontl and P. Danielle Shannon
Additional contact information
Chris Swanston: USDA Northern Forests Climate Hub
Leslie A. Brandt: USDA Forest Service
Maria K. Janowiak: USDA Forest Service
Stephen D. Handler: USDA Forest Service
Patricia Butler-Leopold: Michigan Technological University
Louis Iverson: USDA Forest Service
Frank R. Thompson: USDA Forest Service
Todd A. Ontl: USDA Northern Forests Climate Hub
P. Danielle Shannon: USDA Northern Forests Climate Hub

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 146, issue 1, No 9, 103-116

Abstract: Abstract Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures will increase suitable habitat and biomass for many temperate species. Upland systems dominated by oak species generally have low vulnerability due to greater tolerance of hot and dry conditions, and some oak, hickory, and pine species are expected to become more competitive under hotter and physiologically drier conditions. However, changes in precipitation patterns, disturbance regimes, soil moisture, pest and disease outbreaks, and nonnative invasive species are expected to contribute forest vulnerability across the region. Northern, boreal, and montane forests have the greatest assessed vulnerability as many of their dominant tree species are projected to decline under warmer conditions. Coastal forests have high vulnerability, as sea level rise along the Atlantic coast increases damage from inundation, greater coastal erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Considering these potential forest vulnerabilities and opportunities is a critical step in making climate-informed decisions in long-term conservation planning.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2065-2

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