Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

Amit Bhardwaj (), Vasubandhu Misra, Akhilesh Mishra, Adrienne Wootten, Ryan Boyles, J. H. Bowden and Adam J. Terando
Additional contact information
Amit Bhardwaj: Florida State University
Vasubandhu Misra: Florida State University
Akhilesh Mishra: Florida State University
Adrienne Wootten: North Carolina State University
Ryan Boyles: North Carolina State University
J. H. Bowden: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Adam J. Terando: Southeast Climate Science Center

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 147, issue 1, No 11, 133-147

Abstract: Abstract We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2130-x

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