Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas (), Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez, José Luís Pérez-Damian, Jorge López-Blanco, Marcos Gaytan-Dimas and Jesús David Gómez-Díaz
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Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas: Universidad Autónoma Chapingo
Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez: Ciudad Universitaria
José Luís Pérez-Damian: Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, INECC
Jorge López-Blanco: Environmental Change Consulting
Marcos Gaytan-Dimas: Universidad Autónoma Chapingo
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz: Universidad Autónoma Chapingo

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 147, issue 3, No 7, 457-473

Abstract: Abstract Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E + S − AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2157-7

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