Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

Joseph Daron (), Ian Macadam, Hideki Kanamaru, Thelma Cinco, Jack Katzfey, Claire Scannell, Richard Jones, Marcelino Villafuerte, Faye Cruz, Gemma Narisma, Rafaela Jane Delfino, Rodel Lasco, John Manalo, Emma Ares, Ana Liza Solis, Rosalina Guzman, Joseph Basconcillo and Fredolin Tangang
Additional contact information
Joseph Daron: Met Office
Ian Macadam: Met Office
Hideki Kanamaru: FAO
Thelma Cinco: PAGASA
Jack Katzfey: CSIRO
Claire Scannell: Met Office
Richard Jones: Met Office
Marcelino Villafuerte: PAGASA
Faye Cruz: Manila Observatory
Gemma Narisma: Manila Observatory
Rafaela Jane Delfino: Oscar M. Lopez Center
Rodel Lasco: Oscar M. Lopez Center
John Manalo: PAGASA
Emma Ares: PAGASA
Ana Liza Solis: PAGASA
Rosalina Guzman: PAGASA
Joseph Basconcillo: PAGASA
Fredolin Tangang: Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 148, issue 1, No 13, 187-203

Abstract: Abstract To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2183-5

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