Sugar-energy sector vulnerability under CMIP5 projections in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region

Jurandir Zullo (), Vânia Rosa Pereira and Andrea Koga-Vicente
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Jurandir Zullo: University of Campinas
Vânia Rosa Pereira: University of Campinas
Andrea Koga-Vicente: University of Campinas

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 149, issue 3, No 15, 489-502

Abstract: Abstract The Brazilian sugar-energy sector (SES) is facing an increasing challenge due to the worldwide expansion of biofuel consumption as a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making yield improvement and land and water availability key factors in addressing this situation. Consequently, our main aim here is to identify SES vulnerability under climate change conditions, based on the methodology used by the Agricultural Zoning of Climatic Risks (ZARC) program. We assessed changes of the sugarcane ZARC in light of the current and near-future climatic conditions given by eight general circulation models (GCM) of the 5th IPCC report and under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. We identified a conversion of the current climatic risk levels in the Brazilian central-southern macro-region for sugarcane in future climate change scenarios, but the spatial distribution of these changes is heterogeneous. The current expansion areas located mainly in southern Goiás and northwest of São Paulo are marked by an increase in areas of low water availability in the future, while the traditional production areas, east of São Paulo, do not present this same vulnerability. Sugarcane cultivation in the south of Goiás is already occurring based on a complementary irrigation (of about 50 mm per month from April to September) to reach a yield similar to traditional areas located in São Paulo state. The development of drought-resistant cultivars based on genetic engineering and the efficiency of the irrigation systems used on a large spatial scale and also in the long term are two key points of concern in the Brazilian context of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The challenges for the traditional production regions are related to the production system’s ability to regulate the capacity and idleness of sugarcane mills aiming to avoid current and future competition by same raw material.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2249-4

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