Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera (), Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Veronika Huber, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Dann Mitchell, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes (), Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Niilo R. I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Daniel Oudin Åström, Martina S. Ragettli, Martin Röösli, Yue Leon Guo, Chang-fu Wu, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L. Bell, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Van, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Shakoor Hajat, Andy Haines, Ben Armstrong, Kristie L. Ebi and Antonio Gasparrini
Additional contact information
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Yuming Guo: Monash University
Francesco Sera: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Veronika Huber: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Dann Mitchell: University of Bristol
Shilu Tong: Anhui Medical University
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho: University of São Paulo
Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva: University of São Paulo
Eric Lavigne: University of Ottawa
Patricia Matus Correa: Universidad de los Andes
Haidong Kan: Fudan University
Samuel Osorio: University of São Paulo
Jan Kyselý: Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Aleš Urban: Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Jouni J. K. Jaakkola: University of Oulu
Niilo R. I. Ryti: University of Oulu
Mathilde Pascal: Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency
Patrick G. Goodman: Dublin Institute of Technology
Ariana Zeka: Brunel University London
Paola Michelozzi: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service
Matteo Scortichini: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service
Masahiro Hashizume: Nagasaki University
Yasushi Honda: University of Tsukuba
Magali Hurtado-Diaz: National Institute of Public Health
Julio Cruz: National Institute of Public Health
Xerxes Seposo: Kyoto University
Ho Kim: Seoul National University
Aurelio Tobias: Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC)
Carmen Íñiguez: University of Valencia
Bertil Forsberg: Umeå University
Daniel Oudin Åström: Umeå University
Martina S. Ragettli: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Martin Röösli: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Yue Leon Guo: National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital
Chang-fu Wu: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes
Antonella Zanobetti: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Joel Schwartz: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Michelle L. Bell: Yale University
Tran Ngoc Dang: University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Dung Van: University of Medicine and Pharmacy
Clare Heaviside: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Sotiris Vardoulakis: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Shakoor Hajat: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Andy Haines: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ben Armstrong: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Kristie L. Ebi: University of Washington
Antonio Gasparrini: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Climatic Change, 2018, vol. 150, issue 3, No 17, 402 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Keywords: Climate change; Mortality; Temperature; Projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

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