Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Samaneh Ashraf, Amir AghaKouchak (), Ali Nazemi, Ali Mirchi, Mojtaba Sadegh, Hamed R. Moftakhari, Elmira Hassanzadeh, Chi-Yuan Miao, Kaveh Madani, Mohammad Mousavi Baygi, Hassan Anjileli, Davood Reza Arab, Hamid Norouzi, Omid Mazdiyasni, Marzi Azarderakhsh, Aneseh Alborzi, Mohammad J. Tourian, Ali Mehran, Alireza Farahmand and Iman Mallakpour
Additional contact information
Samaneh Ashraf: University of California
Amir AghaKouchak: University of California
Ali Nazemi: Concordia University
Ali Mirchi: Oklahoma State University
Mojtaba Sadegh: Boise State University
Hamed R. Moftakhari: University of California
Elmira Hassanzadeh: Polytechnique Montreal
Chi-Yuan Miao: Beijing Normal University
Mohammad Mousavi Baygi: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
Hassan Anjileli: University of California
Davood Reza Arab: Rahbord Danesh Pooya Institute
Hamid Norouzi: City University of New York
Omid Mazdiyasni: University of California
Marzi Azarderakhsh: Fairleigh Dickinson University
Aneseh Alborzi: University of California
Mohammad J. Tourian: University of Stuttgart
Ali Mehran: University of California
Alireza Farahmand: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Iman Mallakpour: University of California

Climatic Change, 2019, vol. 152, issue 3, No 5, 379-391

Abstract: Abstract By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2336-6

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