A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections

Bethany Robinson () and Jonathan D. Herman
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Bethany Robinson: University of California
Jonathan D. Herman: University of California

Climatic Change, 2019, vol. 152, issue 3, No 8, 448 pages

Abstract: Abstract Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or “signposts.” However, the success of such strategies depends on whether thresholds can be accurately linked to future vulnerabilities. This study presents a framework for testing the ability of adaptation thresholds to dynamically identify vulnerable scenarios within ensemble projections. Streamflow projections for 91 river sites predominantly in the western USA are used as a case study in which vulnerability is determined by the ensemble members with the lowest 10% of end-of-century mean annual flow. Illustrative planning thresholds are defined through time for each site based on the mean streamflow below which a specified fraction of scenarios is vulnerable. We perform a leave-one-out cross-validation to compute the frequency of incorrectly identifying or failing to identify a vulnerable scenario (false positives and false negatives, respectively). Results show that in general, this method of defining thresholds can identify vulnerable scenarios with low false positive rates (

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2347-3

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