Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain

Huiqing Bai, Jing Wang (), Quanxiao Fang and Hong Yin
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Huiqing Bai: China Agricultural University
Jing Wang: China Agricultural University
Quanxiao Fang: Qingdao Agricultural University
Hong Yin: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

Climatic Change, 2019, vol. 156, issue 4, No 8, 589-607

Abstract: Abstract Wheat productivity in the North China Plain (NCP) is highly sensitive to climate change and varies greatly in spatial-temporal scale. Contrasting responses of wheat productivity to climate change were reported with different assessment methods. In this study, the impacts of climate warming (+ 2 °C) on wheat yields and yield gaps in the NCP were compared under rainfed, irrigated, and potential conditions using climatic resource utilization model (CRUM) and APSIM. Average potential yield increased 289 kg ha−1 per decade (P

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02526-2

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