Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?

Sailesh Ranjitkar, Dengpan Bu, Mark Wijk, Ying Ma, Lu Ma, Lianshen Zhao, Jianmin Shi, Chousheng Liu and Jianchu Xu ()
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Sailesh Ranjitkar: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Dengpan Bu: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Mark Wijk: International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI
Ying Ma: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Lu Ma: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Lianshen Zhao: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Jianmin Shi: National Animal Husbandry Services
Chousheng Liu: National Animal Husbandry Services
Jianchu Xu: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 161, issue 4, No 7, 637-652

Abstract: Abstract There are clear signs that milk production growth is leveling off, and recently even declining, in China. Heat stress is one of the main reasons for the recent reduction in milk production. In this study, we computed the change in milk production as a result of heat stress in major milk production areas in China. We constructed a temperature–humidity index (THI) spatial layer to understand the monthly distribution of heat and moisture. We documented specific areas in northern China where cattle were at high risk to heat stress in specific months. THI values exceeded the threshold above which milk production declines during months of June, July, and August. Especially during July, the THI value was higher than the production threshold in recent years (2008 to 2016) and in projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). THI-based milk yield losses were up from 0.7 to about 4 kg per cow per day in July 2016. These losses are projected to increase from 1.5 to 6.5 kg in 2050 and 2 to 7.2 kg in 2070 (representing production losses between 15 and 50%). These results suggest that climate change will have significant consequences for the dairy sector in major milk-producing areas in China. Our results are useful in identifying areas susceptible to heat stress where adaptive livestock management practices are needed to prevent significant production decreases.

Keywords: Cow; Milk production; Climate change; Temperature–humidity index; Heat stress (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02688-4

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