Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: drivers, mechanisms and impacts

M. James Salinger (), Howard J. Diamond, Erik Behrens, Denise Fernandez, B. Blair Fitzharris, Nicholas Herold, Paul Johnstone, Huub Kerckhoffs, A. Brett Mullan, Amber K. Parker, James Renwick, Claire Scofield, Allan Siano, Robert O. Smith, Paul M. South, Phil J. Sutton, Edmar Teixeira, Mads S. Thomsen and Michael C. T. Trought
Additional contact information
M. James Salinger: University of Florence
Howard J. Diamond: NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory
Erik Behrens: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Denise Fernandez: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
B. Blair Fitzharris: University of Otago
Nicholas Herold: Science Division, Climate and Atmospheric Science
Paul Johnstone: New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited
Huub Kerckhoffs: Massey University
A. Brett Mullan: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Amber K. Parker: Lincoln University
James Renwick: Victoria University of Wellington
Claire Scofield: New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited
Allan Siano: Massey University
Robert O. Smith: University of Otago
Paul M. South: Cawthron Institute
Phil J. Sutton: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
Edmar Teixeira: New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited
Mads S. Thomsen: University of Canterbury
Michael C. T. Trought: Innovative Winegrowing

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 162, issue 2, No 19, 485-506

Abstract: Abstract During austral summers (DJF) 1934/35, 2017/18 and 2018/19, the New Zealand (NZ) region (approximately 4 million km2) experienced the most intense coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwaves on record. Average air temperature anomalies over land were + 1.7 to 2.1 °C while sea surface temperatures (SST) were 1.2 to 1.9 °C above average. All three heatwaves exhibited maximum SST anomalies west of the South Island of NZ. Atmospheric circulation anomalies showed a pattern of blocking centred over the Tasman Sea extending south-east of NZ, accompanied by strongly positive Southern Annular Mode conditions, and reduced trough activity over NZ. Rapid melt of seasonal snow occurred in all three cases. For the two most recent events, combined ice loss in the Southern Alps was estimated at 8.9 km3 (22% of the 2017 volume). Sauvignon blanc and Pinot noir wine grapes had above average berry number and bunch mass in 2018 but were below average in 2019. Summerfruit harvest (cherries and apricots) was 14 and 2 days ahead of normal in 2017/18 and 2018/19 respectively. Spring wheat simulations suggested earlier flowering and lower grain yields compared to average, and below-average yield and tuber quality in potatoes crops occurred. Major species disruption occurred in marine ecosystems. Hindcasts indicate that the heatwaves were either atmospherically driven or arose from combinations of atmospheric surface warming and oceanic heat advection.

Keywords: Anthropogenic global warming; Marine heatwave; Atmospheric heatwave; Terrestrial ecosystems; Marine ecosystems; Crops (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5

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