Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios

Jung-A Yang (), Sooyoul Kim, Sangyoung Son, Nobuhito Mori and Hajime Mase
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Jung-A Yang: Korea University
Sooyoul Kim: Tottori University
Sangyoung Son: Korea University
Nobuhito Mori: Kyoto University
Hajime Mase: Kyoto University

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 162, issue 2, No 15, 425-442

Abstract: Abstract We assess uncertainties in projecting future changes in extreme storm surge height (SSH) based on typhoon data extracted from ensemble experiment results with four sea surface temperature (SST) conditions and three global warming scenarios using a single atmospheric global climate model. In particular, this study focus on typhoons passing around the Korean Peninsula (KP) defined as the region of 32 to 40° N and 122 to 132° E. It is predicted the number of the typhoons affecting the KP will decrease by 4~73% while their strength will increase by 0.8~1.4% under the given future conditions. The locations of genesis and lysis of the typhoons are expected to be shifted towards the northwest and northeast for all ensemble experiment conditions, respectively. However, the extent of their change varies depending on the future SST and global warming conditions. Storm surge simulations were carried out by using predicted typhoon data as an external force. It is found that future SST patterns and climate warming scenarios affect future typhoon characteristics, which influences values of extreme SSH and locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge under the future climate conditions. In particular, the values of extreme SSH and the locations of the vulnerable area to storm surge appear to be strongly influenced by both pathway and frequency of intense typhoons.

Keywords: Extreme storm surge height; Climate change; Ensemble experiment; Sea surface temperature; Greenhouse gas concentration scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02782-7

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