Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system

Alexandre C. Köberle (), Pedro R. R. Rochedo, André F. P. Lucena, Alexandre Szklo and Roberto Schaeffer
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Alexandre C. Köberle: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia
Pedro R. R. Rochedo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia
André F. P. Lucena: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia
Alexandre Szklo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 162, issue 4, No 9, 1823-1842

Abstract: Abstract The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission scenarios for Brazil for the 2010–2050 period that cost-effectively raise ambition to levels consistent with PA targets. Our results reinforce the fundamental role of the agriculture, forest, and land use (AFOLU) sectors and explore inter-sectoral linkages to power generation and transportation. We identify transportation as a prime candidate for decarbonization, leveraging Brazil’s already low-carbon electricity production and its high bioenergy production. Results indicate the most important mitigation measures are electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet for passenger transportation, biodiesel and biokerosene production via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from lignocellulosic feedstock, and intensification of agricultural production. The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as netzero deforestation make significant contributions. We identify opportunities for Brazil, but synergies and trade-offs across sectors should be minded when designing climate policies.

Keywords: Brazil emissions; Climate mitigation; Bioenergy and biofuels; Low-carbon transition; Mitigation scenarios; Integrated assessment model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6

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