Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate

Aviva Loew (), Paulina Jaramillo, Haibo Zhai, Rahim Ali, Bart Nijssen, Yifan Cheng and Kelly Klima
Additional contact information
Aviva Loew: Carnegie Mellon University
Paulina Jaramillo: Carnegie Mellon University
Haibo Zhai: University of Wyoming
Rahim Ali: Carnegie Mellon University
Bart Nijssen: University of Washington
Yifan Cheng: University of Washington
Kelly Klima: Carnegie Mellon University

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 1, No 34, 619-632

Abstract: Abstract Climate change introduces an uncertain risk to power plant operations as ambient conditions potentially constrain generation through thermodynamic limitations. Previous studies aiming to quantify this risk have suggested a wide range of results, from minimal to disastrous capacity loss. In this analysis, we used a power plant modeling tool to study how a variety of power plant configurations respond to varying meteorological conditions. We developed tools that enable the analysis of the climate impacts on power plant operations for a spectrum of geographic situations and technological configurations. We also used these tools to conduct a case study for US coal and natural gas power plants in 2050, under climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 4.5. Our study indicates that rising air temperatures are unlikely to seriously threaten capacity and efficiency at power plants at most locations, provided that wet recirculating and dry cooling systems are designed adequately. Our results allow for simpler modeling of power plant capacity deratings given ambient conditions, highlight potential regions of risk, and underscore the importance of incorporating climate factors into the electric power system’s design and planning.

Keywords: Electricity generation; Meteorological shifts; Power plants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02834-y

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