Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan

Jamshad Hussain (), Tasneem Khaliq, Senthold Asseng, Umer Saeed, Ashfaq Ahmad, Burhan Ahmad, Ishfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Fahad, Muhammad Awais, Asmat Ullah and Gerrit Hoogenboom
Additional contact information
Jamshad Hussain: University of Agriculture
Tasneem Khaliq: University of Agriculture
Senthold Asseng: University of Florida
Umer Saeed: University of Agriculture
Ashfaq Ahmad: University of Agriculture
Burhan Ahmad: Pakistan Meteorological Department
Ishfaq Ahmad: University of Florida
Muhammad Fahad: PMAS-Arid Agriculture University
Muhammad Awais: Islamia University Bahawalpur-Pakistan
Asmat Ullah: Directorate of Agronomy, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute
Gerrit Hoogenboom: Institute for Sustainable Food Systems 184 Rogers Hall, University of Florida

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 1, No 16, 253-266

Abstract: Abstract Comparing outputs of multiple climate and crop models is an option to assess the uncertainty in simulations in a changing climate. The use of multiple wheat models under five plausible future simulated climatic conditions is rarely found in literature. CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, CROPSIM-Wheat, and APSIM-Wheat models were calibrated with observed data form eleven sowing dates (15 October to 15 March) of irrigated wheat trails at Faisalabad, Pakistan, to explore close to real climate changing impacts and adaptations. Twenty-nine GCM of CMIP5 were used to generate future climate scenarios during 2040–2069 under RCP 8.5. These scenarios were categorized among five climatic conditions (Cool/Wet, Cool/Dry, Hot/Wet, Hot/Dry, Middle) on the basis of monthly changes in temperature and rainfall of wheat season using a stretched distribution approach (STA). The five GCM at Faisalabad and Layyah were selected and used in the wheat multimodels set to CO2 571 ppm. In the future, the temperature of both locations will elevate 2–3 °C under the five climatic conditions, although Faisalabad will be drier and Layyah will be wetter as compared with baseline conditions. Climate change impacts were quantified on wheat sown on different dates, including 1 November, 15 November, and 30 November which showed average reduction at semiarid and arid environment by 23.5%, 19.8%, and 31%, respectively. Agronomic and breeding options offset the climate change impacts and also increased simulated yield about 20% in all climatic conditions. The number of GCMs was considerably different in each quadrate of STA, showing the uncertainty in possible future climatic conditions of both locations. Uncertainty among wheat models was higher at Layyah as compared with Faisalabad. Under Hot/Dry and Hot/Wet climatic conditions, wheat models were the most uncertain to simulate impacts and adaptations. DSSAT-Nwheat and APSIM-Wheat were the most and least sensitive to changing temperature among years and climatic conditions, respectively.

Keywords: Planting dates; Multimodels; Climate change; Adaptations; GCMs; Stretched distribution approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02855-7

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