Warming winters threaten peripheral Arctic charr populations of Europe

Seán Kelly (), Tadhg N. Moore, Elvira Eyto, Mary Dillane, Chloé Goulon, Jean Guillard, Emilien Lasne, Phil McGinnity, Russell Poole, Ian J. Winfield, R. Iestyn Woolway and Eleanor Jennings
Additional contact information
Seán Kelly: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Tadhg N. Moore: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Elvira Eyto: Marine Institute
Mary Dillane: Marine Institute
Chloé Goulon: University of Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL
Jean Guillard: University of Savoie Mont Blanc, INRAE, CARRTEL
Emilien Lasne: ESE, Ecology and Ecosystem Health, Agrocampus-Ouest, INRAE
Phil McGinnity: Marine Institute
Russell Poole: Marine Institute
Ian J. Winfield: Lancaster Environment Centre
R. Iestyn Woolway: ECSAT
Eleanor Jennings: Dundalk Institute of Technology

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 1, No 33, 599-618

Abstract: Abstract As the global climate warms, the fate of lacustrine fish is of huge concern, especially given their sensitivity as ectotherms to changes in water temperature. The Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.) is a salmonid with a Holarctic distribution, with peripheral populations persisting at temperate latitudes, where it is found only in sufficiently cold, deep lakes. Thus, warmer temperatures in these habitats particularly during early life stages could have catastrophic consequences on population dynamics. Here, we combined lake temperature observations, a 1-D hydrodynamic model, and a multi-decadal climate reanalysis to show coherence in warming winter water temperatures in four European charr lakes near the southernmost limit of the species’ distribution. Current maximum and mean winter temperatures are on average ~ 1 °C warmer compared to early the 1980s, and temperatures of 8.5 °C, adverse for high charr egg survival, have frequently been exceeded in recent winters. Simulations of winter lake temperatures toward century-end showed that these warming trends will continue, with further increases of 3–4 °C projected. An additional 324 total accumulated degree-days during winter is projected on average across lakes, which could impair egg quality and viability. We suggest that the perpetuating winter warming trends shown here will imperil the future status of these lakes as charr refugia and generally do not augur well for the fate of coldwater-adapted lake fish in a warming climate.

Keywords: Arctic charr; Lake ecosystems; Biodiversity conservation; Hydrodynamic modelling; Climate reanalysis; General circulation model; Winter limnology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02887-z

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