Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Mathijs Harmsen (), Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Lara Aleluia Reis, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano and Steven J. Smith
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Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Jérôme Hilaire: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Olivier Durand-Lasserve: OECD Environment Directorate
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Zbigniew Klimont: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
Lara Aleluia Reis: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Fuminori Sano: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth 9-2, Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-Shi
Steven J. Smith: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 3, No 17, 1443-1461

Abstract: Abstract Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02436-3

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