The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

Mathijs Harmsen (), Detlef P. Vuuren, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jean Chateau, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Gunnar Luderer, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith and Kenichi Wada
Additional contact information
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Jean Chateau: OECD Environment Directorate
Olivier Durand-Lasserve: OECD Environment Directorate
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
David E. H. J. Gernaat: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Tatsuya Hanaoka: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Jérôme Hilaire: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Gunnar Luderer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Maria Cecilia P. Moura: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Fuminori Sano: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Steven J. Smith: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Kenichi Wada: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 3, No 15, 1409-1425

Abstract: Abstract This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2

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