Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

Steven J Smith (), Jean Chateau, Kalyn Dorheim, Laurent Drouet, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Fuminori Sano, Detlef P. Vuuren and Kenichi Wada
Additional contact information
Steven J Smith: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jean Chateau: OECD Environment Directorate
Kalyn Dorheim: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Olivier Durand-Lasserve: OECD Environment Directorate
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Tatsuya Hanaoka: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Jérôme Hilaire: Leibniz Association
Zbigniew Klimont: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Gunnar Luderer: Leibniz Association
Maria Cecilia P. Moura: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Fuminori Sano: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Kenichi Wada: Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 3, No 16, 1427-1442

Abstract: Abstract The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

Keywords: Climate change; Air pollution; Radiative forcing; Black carbon; Methane (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02794-3

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