Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources

Rutger Dankers () and Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
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Rutger Dankers: Wageningen University & Research
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz: Polish Academy of Sciences

Climatic Change, 2020, vol. 163, issue 3, No 13, 1379-1397

Abstract: Abstract This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in physical climate impact assessments. It draws on examples from related fields such as climate modelling and numerical weather prediction in discussing how to interpret the results of multi-model ensembles and the role of model evaluation. Using large-scale, multi-model simulations of hydrological extremes as an example, we demonstrate how large uncertainty at the local scale does not preclude more robust conclusions at the global scale. Finally, some recommendations are made: climate impact studies should be clear about the questions they want to address, transparent about the uncertainties involved, and honest about the assumptions being made.

Keywords: Physical climate impact projections; Uncertainty; Multi-model ensembles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02858-4

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