Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

Nobuhito Mori (), Nozomi Ariyoshi, Tomoya Shimura (), Takuya Miyashita () and Junichi Ninomiya ()
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Nobuhito Mori: Kyoto University
Nozomi Ariyoshi: Kyoto University
Tomoya Shimura: Kyoto University
Takuya Miyashita: Kyoto University
Junichi Ninomiya: Kanazawa University

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 164, issue 3, No 1, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/∘C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.

Keywords: Extreme storm surge; Maximum potential intensity; Tropical cyclone; Climate change; Future change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x

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