New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning—case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany

Jörn Birkmann (), Holger Sauter, Matthias Garschagen, Mark Fleischhauer, Wiriya Puntub, Charlotte Klose, Albrecht Burkhardt, Franziska Göttsche, Kevin Laranjeira, Julia Müller and Björn Büter
Additional contact information
Jörn Birkmann: University of Stuttgart
Holger Sauter: University of Stuttgart
Matthias Garschagen: Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU)
Mark Fleischhauer: TU Dortmund University
Wiriya Puntub: TU Dortmund University
Charlotte Klose: Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data
Albrecht Burkhardt: Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data
Franziska Göttsche: University of Stuttgart
Kevin Laranjeira: University of Stuttgart
Julia Müller: Department of Energy, Environment and Mobility & Department of Statistics and social data
Björn Büter: GEO-Net

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 165, issue 1, No 37, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.

Keywords: Vulnerability scenarios; Adaptation to climate change; Heat stress; Urban areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03005-3

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