EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing

Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza Najafi (), Harsimrenjit Singh and Markus Schnorbus
Additional contact information
Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi: Western University
Mohammad Reza Najafi: Western University
Harsimrenjit Singh: Western University
Markus Schnorbus: University of Victoria

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 165, issue 1, No 14, 19 pages

Abstract: Abstract Increases in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic extremes associated with climate change can cause significant socioeconomic problems. Assessments of projected extremes using only a limited number of general circulation model (GCM) simulations can undermine the capacity to differentiate and communicate the contribution of internal climate variability (ICV) and external forcing and result in an underestimation of associated risks. In this study, we assess the impacts of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation and quantify the contribution of internal variability over the Columbia, Fraser, Peace and Campbell River basins in northwestern North America (NWNA). Seven GCMs that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (50 members) are downscaled to 1/16° spatial resolution using Bias Correction Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping reordering version 2 (BCCAQ2). Spatial and temporal changes of climate extreme indices, representing the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation, are assessed over the historical (1981–2010) and future (2060–2089) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The influence of ICV on the estimated trends of extreme indices is characterised. Overall, both the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events are projected to increase in NWNA indicating more severe dry days and wet conditions in the future. High-elevation Rocky and the Coast Mountains are at larger risks of extreme precipitation, while the Columbia basin, which already faces drought issues, is expected to experience severe dry conditions. Internal climate variability plays a significant role, particularly in the trends of precipitation-related indices. The signal to internal noise ratio analyses suggest that higher elevations experience stronger forcing signals for precipitation-based indices compared to the other regions.

Keywords: Climate extremes; External forcing; Internal climate variability; Northwestern North America; CLIMDEX; CMIP5; CanESM2 large ensemble (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03037-9 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03037-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03037-9

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-20
Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03037-9