Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation

Charlie Wilson (), Céline Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef P. Vuuren, Volker Krey, Valeria Jana Schwanitz and Erica L. Thompson
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Charlie Wilson: University of East Anglia
Elmar Kriegler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of The Leibniz Association
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Valeria Jana Schwanitz: Western Norway University of Applied Sciences
Erica L. Thompson: London School of Economics and Political Science

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 166, issue 1, No 3, 22 pages

Abstract: Abstract Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

Keywords: Process-based integrated assessment model; IAM; Evaluation; Climate mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9

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