Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C

Sally Brown (), Katie Jenkins, Philip Goodwin, Daniel Lincke, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Richard Tol, Rhosanna Jenkins, Rachel Warren, Robert J. Nicholls, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Agustin Sanchez Arcilla and Ivan D. Haigh
Additional contact information
Sally Brown: Bournemouth University
Katie Jenkins: University of East Anglia
Philip Goodwin: University of Southampton
Daniel Lincke: Global Climate Forum
Athanasios T. Vafeidis: Kiel University
Rhosanna Jenkins: University of East Anglia
Rachel Warren: University of East Anglia
Robert J. Nicholls: University of East Anglia
Svetlana Jevrejeva: Centre for Climate Research Singapore
Agustin Sanchez Arcilla: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
Ivan D. Haigh: University of Southampton

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 167, issue 1, No 4, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.

Keywords: Sea-level rise; Adaptation; Dike; Cost; Damage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z

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