Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming

Ahmed Elkouk (), Zine El Abidine Morjani, Yadu Pokhrel, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Abdelfattah Sifeddine, Stephan Thober and Lhoussaine Bouchaou
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Ahmed Elkouk: Ibn Zohr University
Zine El Abidine Morjani: Ibn Zohr University
Yadu Pokhrel: Michigan State University
Abdelghani Chehbouni: Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CNES, IRD
Abdelfattah Sifeddine: IRD-Sorbonne Université, UMR LOCEAN (IRD, CNRS, Univ. Sorbonne, MNHN)
Stephan Thober: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ
Lhoussaine Bouchaou: Ibn Zohr University

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 167, issue 3, No 26, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5–3 °C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 °C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 °C compared to that under 1.5 °C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 °C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.

Keywords: Global warming; Soil moisture; Drought; North Africa; Sahel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0

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