Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

Linh N. Luu (), Paolo Scussolini, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Robert Vautard, Khiem Mai, Thang Vu, Kien Ba Truong, Friederike Otto, Gerard Schrier, Maarten K. Aalst and Geert Jan Oldenborgh
Additional contact information
Linh N. Luu: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Paolo Scussolini: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Sarah Kew: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Sjoukje Philip: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Mugni Hadi Hariadi: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Robert Vautard: Université Paris-Saclay and IPSL
Khiem Mai: National Centre for Hydro - Meteorological Forecasting
Thang Vu: Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change
Kien Ba Truong: Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change
Friederike Otto: Imperial College London
Gerard Schrier: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Maarten K. Aalst: University of Twente
Geert Jan Oldenborgh: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 169, issue 3, No 6, 22 pages

Abstract: Abstract In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

Keywords: Heavy rainfall; Attribution; Typhoon; Climate change; Extreme events (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03261-3

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