WRF/UCM simulations of the impacts of urban expansion and future climate change on atmospheric thermal environment in a Chinese megacity

Yang Zhao, Lei Zhong (), Yaoming Ma, Yunfei Fu, Mingxing Chen, Weiqiang Ma, Chun Zhao, Ziyu Huang and Keqi Zhou
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Yang Zhao: University of Science and Technology of China
Lei Zhong: University of Science and Technology of China
Yaoming Ma: Chinese Academy of Science
Yunfei Fu: University of Science and Technology of China
Mingxing Chen: CAS
Weiqiang Ma: Chinese Academy of Science
Chun Zhao: University of Science and Technology of China
Ziyu Huang: University of Science and Technology of China
Keqi Zhou: University of Science and Technology of China

Climatic Change, 2021, vol. 169, issue 3, No 20, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract Urban expansion and climate change can considerably influence the regional thermal environment. In this study, the effects of changes in land cover type and vegetation coverage (referred to as LU for short), gridded anthropogenic heat (AH) emission and future climate change on atmospheric thermal environment in a Chinese megacity, Hefei, are investigated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Urban Canopy Model (UCM) model. It is found that the increase of surface sensible heat in old urban areas is contributed by AH emission, while that in new urban areas is attributed to LU change. The LU change in new urban areas can lead to the decreased latent heat flux due to the reduction of vegetation coverage and the increase of impervious land surface. The contribution of LU change to the summer UHI intensity is about 0.76 ℃, and AH emission to that is about 0.17 ℃. The combined effects of LU change and AH emission in old urban areas are greater than those in new urban areas, leading to changes in daily mean 2-m air temperature, 2-m relative humidity (RH), and heat index in old (new) urban areas to be 1.08 ℃ (0.75 ℃), – 5.93% (– 4.96%), and 2.77 ℃ (1.76 ℃), respectively. At the end of the twenty-first century, the urban air temperature under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario is 0.7 ℃ (3 ℃) higher than that at present.

Keywords: WRF/UCM modeling system; Urban expansion; Gridded anthropogenic heat; Climate change; Atmospheric thermal environment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03287-7

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