Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries

Yi He (), Desmond Manful, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Timothy J. Osborn, Jeff Price, Rhosanna Jenkins, Craig Wallace and Dai Yamazaki
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Yi He: University of East Anglia
Desmond Manful: University of East Anglia
Rachel Warren: University of East Anglia
Nicole Forstenhäusler: University of East Anglia
Timothy J. Osborn: University of East Anglia
Jeff Price: University of East Anglia
Rhosanna Jenkins: University of East Anglia
Craig Wallace: University of East Anglia
Dai Yamazaki: The University of Tokyo

Climatic Change, 2022, vol. 170, issue 1, No 15, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract We project climate change induced changes in fluvial flood risks for six global warming levels between 1.5 and 4 °C by 2100, focusing on the major river basins of six countries. Daily time series of precipitation, temperature and monthly potential evapotranspiration were generated by combining monthly observations, daily reanalysis data and projected changes in the five CMIP5 GCMs also selected in the ISI-MIP fast track project. These series were then used to drive the HBV hydrological model and the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to simulate river discharge and flood inundation. Our results indicate that return periods of 1 in 100-year floods in the late twentieth century (Q100-20C) are likely to decrease with warming. At 1.5 °C warming, 47%, 66%, 27%, 65%, 62% and 92% of the major basin areas in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India respectively experience a decrease in the return period of Q100-20C, increasing to 54%, 81%, 28%, 82%, 86% and 96% with 4 °C warming. The decrease in return periods leads to increased number of people exposed to flood risks, particularly with 4 °C warming, where exposure in the major river basin areas in the six countries increases significantly, ranging from a doubling (China) to more than 50-fold (Egypt). Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would avoid much of these increased risks, resulting in increases ranging from 12 to 1266% for the 6 countries.

Keywords: Fluvial flooding; Climate change and warming; HBV; CaMa-Flood; CMIP5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03289-5

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