Strengthening climate-resilient development and transformation in Viet Nam

Arun Rana (), Qinhan Zhu, Annette Detken, Karina Whalley and Christelle Castet
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Arun Rana: Frankfurt School of Finance and Management gemeinnützige GmbH
Qinhan Zhu: ETH Zürich, Chair of Weather and Climate Risks
Annette Detken: Frankfurt School of Finance and Management gemeinnützige GmbH
Karina Whalley: AXA Climate
Christelle Castet: AXA Climate

Climatic Change, 2022, vol. 170, issue 1, No 4, 23 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is presenting an ongoing and eminent threat to various regions, communities and infrastructure worldwide. In this study, the current and future climate impacts faced by Viet Nam due to Tropical Cyclones (TCs), specifically wind and surge, are evaluated, and different adaptation measures to manage this risk are appraised. The level of wind and storm surge risk was assessed focusing on three categories of assets: residential houses, agriculture, and people. The expected damage to these assets was then evaluated based on their exposure to the hazard under current and future climate scenarios. Physical adaptation measures such as mangroves, sea dykes, and gabions, and financial adaptation measures such as risk transfer via insurance were applied to the expected future risk and evaluated based on a socio-economic cost–benefit analysis. The output will give decision-makers the ability to make more informed decisions, prioritize the most cost-effective adaptation measures and increase physical and financial resilience. The results indicated significant TC exposure in future climate scenarios due to economic development and climate change that almost doubles the current expected damage. Surge-related damage was found to be many times higher than wind damage, and houses had more exposure (value in total) than agriculture on a national scale. The physical adaptation measures are successful in significantly reducing the future wind and especially surge risk and would form a resilient strategy along with risk transfer for managing TC risks in the region.

Keywords: Climate Resilience; Coastal Protection; Tropical Cyclones; Cost–benefit; Insurance; Nature-based solutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03290-y

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