Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture

Katharina Waha (), John Clarke, Kavina Dayal, Mandy Freund, Craig Heady, Irene Parisi and Elisabeth Vogel
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Katharina Waha: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
John Clarke: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
Kavina Dayal: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
Mandy Freund: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
Craig Heady: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
Irene Parisi: CSIRO Agriculture & Food
Elisabeth Vogel: University of Melbourne

Climatic Change, 2022, vol. 170, issue 3, No 11, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract Annual rainfall and the seasonality of rainfall during a year are important drivers of agricultural productivity and profitability in Australian agriculture. Historic trend detection can give insights into significant and prolonged changes that might continue in the future and are of relevance to agriculture. Here we complement the analysis of historic data with climate projections from global climate models. We use gridded and station rainfall data for three study areas in the Australian midlatitudes, between 24°S and 35°S. Total summer and winter rainfall, annual total rainfall and annual rainfall extreme indices are calculated for the period 1907 to 2018. Historic trends are analysed with statistical significance tests of linear trends and rainfall deciles. Future trends are analysed for annual, summer and winter rainfall for three time periods, 2020–2039, 2040–2059 and 2060–79, as the ensemble of 25–37 global climate models. Summer rainfall in the Western Australia wheat belt increased by 0.18–0.21 mm per year. Winter rainfall decreased by 0.42–0.43 mm per year. Parts of northern New South Wales (NSW) experienced an exceptionally dry decade, 2011–2020 with summer rainfall 50–200 mm below the long-term average. Future rainfall projections for the wheat belt show a strong declining trend, irrespective of the climate scenario, while in the other two regions, increases and decreases are possible. We confirm previous findings of declines in winter rainfall in the Western Australia wheat Belt but do not detect any such changes in Eastern Australia. Some of the observed long periods of dry summers in northern NSW are rather unprecedented. Future studies should repeat the trend analysis for Eastern Australia as the data becomes available. Apart from climate indices, agrometeorological indices for specific agricultural commodities should be developed and used in trend analysis.

Keywords: Seasonal rainfall change; Historic rainfall trend; Future rainfall trends; Drought (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03301-y

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