Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Rachel Warren (), Oliver Andrews, Sally Brown, Felipe J. Colón-González, Nicole Forstenhäusler, David E. H. J. Gernaat, P. Goodwin, Ian Harris, Yi He, Chris Hope, Desmond Manful, Timothy J. Osborn, Jeff Price, Detlef Vuuren and Rebecca Mary Wright
Additional contact information
Rachel Warren: University of East Anglia
Oliver Andrews: University of Bristol
Sally Brown: Bournemouth University
Felipe J. Colón-González: University of East Anglia
Nicole Forstenhäusler: University of East Anglia
David E. H. J. Gernaat: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
P. Goodwin: University of Southampton
Ian Harris: University of East Anglia
Yi He: University of East Anglia
Chris Hope: University of Cambridge
Desmond Manful: University of East Anglia
Timothy J. Osborn: University of East Anglia
Jeff Price: University of East Anglia
Detlef Vuuren: University of East Anglia
Rebecca Mary Wright: University of East Anglia

Climatic Change, 2022, vol. 172, issue 3, No 18, 16 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.

Keywords: Climate change; Mitigation; Paris Agreement; Avoided impacts; Economic damages; Fluvial flooding; Hotspots (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

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