Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China

Yulong Yao, Wei Zhang () and Ben Kirtman
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Yulong Yao: South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wei Zhang: Princeton University
Ben Kirtman: University of Miami

Climatic Change, 2023, vol. 176, issue 10, No 1, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) and heatwaves (HWs) can trigger floods, droughts, and other natural disasters, resulting in severe socioeconomic losses in eastern China. However, the accurate links between EPEs and HWs and future changes in these extremes are not fully resolved, which potentially impedes disaster warning and preparedness efforts. This study examines historical and future changes in summer EPEs and HWs in eastern China based on observations and model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The results show that EPEs and HWs in eastern China have increased in the past four decades and are projected to rise in the future. According to multi-model projections, the Yangtze River Basin, along with areas to its south, are expected to experience an increase in compound disasters due to HWs and EPEs. High values of the multi-year mean total population exposure to EPEs and HWs are observed in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan Basin, and southeast coast. The total population exposure to EPEs shows a decreasing trend under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2021–2100, consistent with future population decline. However, the annual total population exposure to HWs will increase, reaching nearly 3.0 billion and 5.0 billion by the end of the century under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Within the context of global warming, the relationship between the mean-state of precipitation and maximum temperature as well as the relationship between extreme precipitation and heatwaves shift from negative correlation in the historical period to positive correlation in future projections for eastern China.

Keywords: Extreme precipitation; Heatwaves; Population exposure; Eastern China; Future projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03610-4

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