The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

Lorenzo Minola (), Jessika Lönn, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Chunlüe Zhou, Erik Engström, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Gangfeng Zhang, Cheng Shen, Alessandro Pezzoli and Deliang Chen
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Lorenzo Minola: University of Gothenburg
Jessika Lönn: University of Gothenburg
Cesar Azorin-Molina: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana)
Chunlüe Zhou: University of Gothenburg
Erik Engström: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Lennart Wern: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Sverker Hellström: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)
Gangfeng Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Cheng Shen: University of Gothenburg
Alessandro Pezzoli: Politecnico and University of Turin
Deliang Chen: University of Gothenburg

Climatic Change, 2023, vol. 176, issue 5, No 8, 22 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden.

Keywords: Wind speed; Climate variability; Centennial-scale; Twentieth century reanalysis; Large-scale atmospheric circulation; Sweden (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03525-0

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