Thermal exposure risk in different life stages of Chinook salmon in the Nechako River system, British Columbia

Muhammed A. Oyinlola (), Mostafa Khorsandi, Noa B. Mayer, Natalie Butler, Jacey C. Wert, Erika J. Eliason, Richard Arsenault, Colin J. Brauner, Scott G. Hinch and Andre St-Hilaire
Additional contact information
Muhammed A. Oyinlola: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Mostafa Khorsandi: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Noa B. Mayer: Pacific Salmon Ecology and Conservation Laboratory, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
Natalie Butler: Pacific Salmon Ecology and Conservation Laboratory, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
Jacey C. Wert: University of California Santa Barbara
Erika J. Eliason: University of California Santa Barbara
Richard Arsenault: Hydrology, Climate and Climate Change Laboratory
Colin J. Brauner: University of British Columbia
Scott G. Hinch: Pacific Salmon Ecology and Conservation Laboratory, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
Andre St-Hilaire: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 12, No 11, 25 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is affecting freshwater systems, leading to increased water temperatures, which is posing a threat to freshwater ecological communities. In the Nechako River, British Columbia, a water management program has been in place since the 1980s to maintain water temperatures at 20 °C during the migration of adult Sockeye salmon. However, the program's effectiveness in mitigating the impacts of climate change on resident species like Chinook salmon's thermal exposure is uncertain. In this study, we utilised the CEQUEAU hydrological model and life stage-specific physiological data to evaluate the consequences of the current program on Chinook salmon's thermal exposure under two contrasting climate change and socio-economic scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the thermal exposure risk is projected to be above the optimal threshold for parr (intermediate juvenile) and adult life stages under both scenarios relative to the 1980s. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, these life stages could experience an increase in thermal exposure ranging from two to five times higher by the 2090s compared to the 1980s. This exposure is projected to occur during the months in which these life stages emerge, including the period when the program is active (July 20th to August 20th). Additionally, our study shows that climate change will result in a substantial rise in cumulative heat degree days, ranging from 1.9 to 5.8 times (2050s) and 2.9 to 12.9 times (2090s) in comparison to the 1980s under SSP5-8.5. Our study highlights the need for a holistic approach to reviewing the current Nechako management plan, ensuring that all species in the Nechako River system are considered especially in the face of climate change.

Keywords: Climate change; Freshwater systems; Water temperatures; Chinook salmon; Thermal exposure risk; Management plan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03833-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03833-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03833-z

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().