Attribution of streamflow changes during 1961–2019 in the Upper Yangtze and the Upper Yellow River basins

Shanshan Wen, Buda Su (), Jinlong Huang, Yanjun Wang, Simon Treu, Fushuang Jiang, Shan Jiang and Han Jiang
Additional contact information
Shanshan Wen: Anhui Normal University
Buda Su: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Jinlong Huang: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Yanjun Wang: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Simon Treu: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Fushuang Jiang: Anhui Normal University
Shan Jiang: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Han Jiang: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 4, No 4, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has remarkable global impacts on hydrological systems, prompting the need to attribute past changes for better future risk estimation and adaptation planning. This study evaluates the differences in simulated discharge from hydrological models when driven by a set of factual and counterfactual climate data, obtained using the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project's recommended data and detrending method, for quantification of climate change impact attribution. The results reveal that climate change has substantially amplified streamflow trends in the Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow basins from 1961 to 2019, aligning with precipitation patterns. Notably, decreasing trends of river flows under counterfactual climate have been reversed, resulting in significant increases. Climate change contributes to 13%, 15% and 8% increases of long-term mean annual discharge, Q10, and Q90 in the Upper Yangtze at Pingshan, and 11%, 10%, 10% in the Upper Yellow at Tangnaihai. The impact are more pronounced at headwater stations, particularly in the Upper Yangtze, where they are twice as high as at the Pingshan outlet. Climate change has a greater impact on Q10 than on Q90 in the Upper Yangtze, while the difference is smaller in the Upper Yellow. The impact of climate change on these flows has accelerated in the recent 30 years compared to the previous 29 years. The attribution of detected differences to climate change is more obvious for the Upper Yangtze than for the Upper Yellow.

Keywords: Attribution; Discharge; Climate change; Upper Yangtze River basin; Upper Yellow River basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03712-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03712-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03712-7

Access Statistics for this article

Climatic Change is currently edited by M. Oppenheimer and G. Yohe

More articles in Climatic Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().