Global warming determines future increase in compound dry and hot days within wheat growing seasons worldwide

Yan He, Yanxia Zhao (), Shao Sun, Jiayi Fang, Yi Zhang, Qing Sun, Li Liu, Yihong Duan, Xiaokang Hu and Peijun Shi
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Yan He: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Yanxia Zhao: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Shao Sun: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Jiayi Fang: Hangzhou Normal University
Yi Zhang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Qing Sun: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Li Liu: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Yihong Duan: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Xiaokang Hu: Beijing Normal University
Peijun Shi: Beijing Normal University

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 4, No 14, 22 pages

Abstract: Abstract Compound dry and hot extremes are proved to be the most damaging climatic stressor to wheat thereby with grave implications for food security, thus it is critical to systematically reveal their changes under unabated global warming. In this study, we comprehensively investigate the global change in compound dry and hot days (CDHD) within dynamic wheat growing seasons during 2015–2100 under 4 socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) based on the latest downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Our results demonstrate a notable increase in CDHD’s frequency ( $${CDHD}_{f}$$ CDHD f ) and severity ( $${CDHD}_{s}$$ CDHD s ) worldwide under all SSPs, such increase is sharper over southern Asia in winter wheat growing season, and southern Canada, northern America, Ukraine, Turkey and northern Kazakhstan in spring wheat growing season. As the top 10 wheat producer, India and America will suffer much more detrimental CDHD in their wheat growing season. Adopting a low forcing pathway will mitigate CDHD risks in up to 93.3% of wheat areas. Positive dependence between droughts and heats in wheat growing season is found over more than 74.2% of wheat areas, which will effectively promote the frequency and severity of CDHD. Global warming will dominate the increase of CDHD directly by increasing hot days and indirectly by enhancing potential evapotranspiration thereby aggravating droughts. This study helps to optimize adaptation strategies for mitigating CDHD risks on wheat production, and provides new insights and analysis paradigm for investigating future variations in compound extremes occurring within dynamic crops growing seasons.

Keywords: Compound dry and hot days; Wheat growing season; Future; Global warming; CMIP6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03718-1

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