Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

Askar Mukashov, Timothy Thomas and James Thurlow
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James Thurlow: International Food Policy Research Institute

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 6, No 10, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Keywords: Climate uncertainty; Development strategy; CGE modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 O20 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

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