Evaluating warming trend over the tibetan plateau based on remotely sensed air temperature from 2001 to 2020

Yan Xin (), Yongming Xu (), Xudong Tong (), Yaping Mo (), Yonghong Liu () and Shanyou Zhu ()
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Yan Xin: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Yongming Xu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Xudong Tong: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Yaping Mo: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Yonghong Liu: CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre
Shanyou Zhu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Climatic Change, 2024, vol. 177, issue 8, No 14, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Third Pole of the world, has experienced significant warming over the past several decades. Previous studies have mostly relied on station-observed air temperature (Ta), reanalysis data, and remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST) to analyze the warming trend over the TP. However, the uneven distribution of stations, the poor spatial resolution of reanalysis data, and the differences between LST and Ta may lead to biased warming rates. This paper first maps Ta over the TP from 2001 to 2020 based on multi-source remote sensing data, and then quantifies the spatio-temporal variations of remotely sensed Ta and elevation dependent warming (EDW) of this region. The monthly mean Ta is estimated using machine learning (ML) method year by year, and its accuracy is validated based on station-observed Ta. The coefficient of determination (R2 ranges from 0.97 to 0.98 and the mean absolute error (MAE) ranges from 1.01 to1.04 °C. The remotely sensed Ta is used to analysis warming trend and EDW over the TP. The overall warming trend of the TP during 2001–2020 is 0.17 ℃/10a, and warming mainly distributed in the eastern TP, central TP and western Kunlun Mountains. Among the four seasons, autumn shows the most significant warming, tripling the annual warming rate. Winter shows a significant cooling trend, with the warming rate of -0.18 ℃/10a. The study also reveales the existence of EDW at both the annual and seasonal scales. This paper suggests the potential of remotely sensed Ta in global warming study, and also provides an improved understanding of climate warming over the TP.

Keywords: Remotely sensed; Air temperature; Warming trend; Elevation dependent warming; Tibetan plateau (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03791-6

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