Challenges in detecting volcanic forcing in climate and societal proxies: insights from the 1170/1171 CE eruption

Sébastien Guillet (), Christophe Corona, Zhen Yang, Clive Oppenheimer, Franck Lavigne, Francis Ludlow and Markus Stoffel
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Sébastien Guillet: University of Geneva
Christophe Corona: CNRS
Zhen Yang: Trinity College
Clive Oppenheimer: University of Cambridge
Franck Lavigne: UMR 8591, CNRS
Francis Ludlow: Trinity College
Markus Stoffel: University of Geneva

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 3, No 25, 24 pages

Abstract: Abstract While our current understanding of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere and climate has significantly advanced, uncertainties persist regarding the climate and societal response to major volcanic events of the Common Era, especially during the high medieval period (1000–1300 CE). This study focuses on a sparsely documented medieval eruption from the late 12th century, considered, on the basis of ice-core evidence, to be one of the most prominent volcanic events of the past millennium. In this context, we explore the challenges researchers may encounter when differentiating between volcanic forcing and internal climate variability in climate and societal proxies. We highlight the importance of accurately dating volcanic eruptions for attribution studies and emphasize the need for a thorough examination of historical sources, along with a deep understanding of prevailing socio-economic and political contexts, when seeking to associate famines, pestilence, or social unrest to the climatic effects of explosive volcanism.

Keywords: Historical climatology; Paleoclimatology; Volcanism; Ice core; Tree-rings; Historical sources (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03867-x

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