Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Samantha Basile (), Allison Crimmins, Fredric Lipschultz (), Kenneth E. Kunkel, Kate Marvel, Adam Terando, Claudia Tebaldi, David Pierce, Wenying Su, L. Ruby Leung and Katharine Hayhoe
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Allison Crimmins: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Fredric Lipschultz: Universities Space Research Association
Kenneth E. Kunkel: North Carolina State University
Kate Marvel: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Adam Terando: US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Claudia Tebaldi: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
David Pierce: Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Wenying Su: NASA Langley Research Center
L. Ruby Leung: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Katharine Hayhoe: Texas Tech University, the Nature Conservancy

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 4, No 26, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Keywords: Climate change; Assessment; Projections; Scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6

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