Climate-induced changes in agricultural land use: parcel-level evidence from California’s Central Valley

Siddharth Kishore (), Mehdi Nemati (), Ariel Dinar (), Cory L. Struthers (), Scott MacKenzie () and Matthew S. Shugart ()
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Siddharth Kishore: UC Riverside
Mehdi Nemati: UC Riverside
Ariel Dinar: UC Riverside
Cory L. Struthers: University of Washington
Scott MacKenzie: University of California
Matthew S. Shugart: University of California

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 4, No 1, 18 pages

Abstract: Abstract How growers adjust land-use decisions to a changing climate has important consequences for food supplies and environmental impact. In this paper, we examine changes in agricultural land use as an adaptive response to long-term climate impacts, using unique parcel-level data in Central Valley, California – a major agricultural hub worldwide. We combine parcel-specific acreage decisions and climate normal to assess the climate-induced land use transition. We find that growers in the Central Valley are transitioning from annual crops to perennial crops in response to changing climates. Summer degree days and total precipitation increased the share of perennial crops, and projected declines in winter chill hours are also expected to increase the share of perennial crops in the Central Valley. Analysis of land-use with heterogeneous land quality suggests that the share of perennial crops increased 11% in high-quality lands and 7% in low quality lands.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Land-use modeling; Perennial crops; Annual crops; California (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03905-8

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