Impact of future regional climate and land use change on compound dry-hot extreme: a case study of the Luan River Basin, Northwest China

Xing Lv, Shihao Chen, Baohui Men (), Canjun Liu and Hongrui Wang
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Xing Lv: North China Electric Power University
Shihao Chen: North China Electric Power University
Baohui Men: North China Electric Power University
Canjun Liu: North China Electric Power University
Hongrui Wang: Beijing Normal University

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 4, No 4, 20 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Compound Dry-Hot Extreme (CDHE) poses greater risks to the socio-economic, natural environment and human health than a single climate extreme. Studying its evolution under future development scenarios has significant implications for incident prevention and mitigation. However, previous studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on CDHE while ignoring the impacts of land use conversion. This study develops a framework for assessing climate extremes under a comprehensive consideration of future regional climate and land use changes based on the coupling of System Dynamic (SD), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. The framework is applied to the Luan River Basin, the regional land use pattern is projected, CDHE under different combinations of climate and land use conditions are simulated, and the role of land use change in driving CDHE is emphasized. The result shows that (1) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, there is an acceleration land use conversions, especially urban expansion and forest degradation. (2) The expansion of built-up land areas has a significant exacerbating effect on CDHE, increasing its frequency by about 25%, duration by about 4% and magnitude by about 3%. This exacerbation has also subjected its adjacent region to 4.1% more CDHE occurrences and 2.6% greater CDHE magnitude. (3) CDHE is more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation, and that land use change affects CDHE mainly by changing near-surface temperature.

Keywords: WRF; Compound Dry-Hot extreme; FLUS; SD; Land use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03909-4

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