Modeling climate impacts on ecosystem services in an anthropized coastal lagoon for effective planning and adaptation

Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro (), Adrián López-Ballesteros, Jorrit P. Mesman, Dennis Trolle, Don Pierson and Javier Senent-Aparicio
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Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro: Catholic University of San Antonio
Adrián López-Ballesteros: Catholic University of San Antonio
Jorrit P. Mesman: Uppsala Universitet
Dennis Trolle: WaterITech
Don Pierson: Uppsala Universitet
Javier Senent-Aparicio: Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación (CIDE), CSIC-UV-GVA

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 5, No 6, 35 pages

Abstract: Abstract Ecosystem services (ES) are nature's positive contributions to people, and recognizing them aids in landscape planning and management, highlighting the importance of preserving ecosystems. Understanding the relationship between ES and climate change is crucial for effective land management, making scenario simulation a valuable method for analyzing ES. This study focuses on analyzing regulation ES (RES) in the Mar Menor and its basin (El Campo de Cartagena) developing a satisfactory SWAT + and GOTM-WET model. Meteorological data from five global climate models were used to simulate two scenarios for long-term RES predictions. Our results show that climate change will raise temperatures by approximately 2ºC and reduce precipitation by 4–19% in Campo de Cartagena, despite an increase in torrential days. This will adversely affect all analyzed regulation ecosystem services (RES), altering nutrient dynamics (phosphorus input up by over 100%, nitrogen input down by 38%), decreasing water availability (water inflow reduced by 6–23%, green water by up to 6%, and blue water by up to 43%), and increasing flood risk, thereby compromising ecosystem resilience. Additionally, we anticipate worsened RES water conditions due to changes in the lagoon's physical, chemical, and biological characteristics, including a temperature rise of 2.2–3.7ºC, decreased oxygen levels, and an increase in chlorophyll by around 1 mg/m3. As a result, hypoxia and algae blooms are anticipated to become more frequent, further stressing the ecosystem.

Keywords: GOTM-WET; Hydrological modelling; Nutrients dynamics; SWAT +; Water availability; Water conditions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03926-3

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