The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

Margherita Harris ()
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Margherita Harris: Leibniz University Hannover

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 5, No 19, 13 pages

Abstract: Abstract In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

Keywords: IPCC uncertainty framework; Confidence and likelihood; Imprecise probabilities; Decision theory; Climate science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6

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