Emerging regional perspectives of global climate change scenarios: a systematic review

Simona Pedde (), Kasper Kok, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Oliver Johnson, Henrik Carlsen, Carole Green, Sara Talebian, Stefan Fagerström and Xiaoshi Xing
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Simona Pedde: Wageningen University and Research
Kasper Kok: Wageningen University and Research
Eric Kemp-Benedict: University of Leeds
Oliver Johnson: Government Office for Science
Henrik Carlsen: Stockholm Environment Institute
Carole Green: University of Washington
Sara Talebian: Stockholm Environment Institute
Stefan Fagerström: Climate Solution, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Xiaoshi Xing: Columbia University

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 6, No 16, 19 pages

Abstract: Abstract Global climate change science-policy assessments have historically relied on emissions and mitigation scenarios, with relatively limited uptake in adaptation or vulnerability research. Reframing global climate scenarios can enhance their relevance in these fields. A systematic review of 155 studies involving regional scenario development reveals five key perspectives for regionalising the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) narratives. While top-down approaches largely dominate, multigenerational regional scenario analyses are emerging, where first-generation regional SSPs provide context for second-generation or further extensions. Participatory methods increasingly integrate bottom-up approaches, offering novel insights into cross-scale consistency. By positioning global scenarios as both boundary objects and boundary conditions, this study highlights the opportunity to expand towards more diverse regional scenarios, potentially broadening engagement with impact, adaptation, and vulnerability scholars beyond the Global North.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03965-w

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