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The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: transdisciplinary practical guidance

K. L. Ebi (), A. Haines, R. F. S. Andrade, C. Åström, M. L. Barreto, A. Bonell, N. Brink, C. Caminade, C. J. Carlson, R. Carter, P. Chua, G. Cissé, F. J. Colón-González, S. Dasgupta, L. A. Galvao, M. Garrido Zornoza, A. Gasparrini, G. Gordon-Strachan, S. Hajat, S. Harper, L. J. Harrington, M. Hashizume, J. Hess, J. Hilly, V. Ingole, L. V. Jacobson, T. Kapwata, C. Keeler, S. A. Kidd, E. W. Kimani-Murage, R. K. Kolli, S. Kovats, S. Li, R. Lowe, D. Mitchell, K. Murray, M. New, O. E. Ogunniyi, S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, J. Pescarini, B. L. Pineda Restrepo, S. T. R. Pinho, V. Prescott, N. Redvers, S. J. Ryan, B. D. Santer, C. F. Schleussner, J. C. Semenza, M. Taylor, L. Temple, S. Thiam, W. Thiery, A. M. Tompkins, S. Undorf, A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, K. Wan, R. Warren, C. Webster, A. Woodward, C. Y. Wright and R. F. Stuart-Smith
Additional contact information
K. L. Ebi: University of Washington
A. Haines: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
R. F. S. Andrade: Instituto Gonçalo Moniz - FIOCRUZ-Ba
C. Åström: Umeå University
M. L. Barreto: Instituto Gonçalo Moniz - FIOCRUZ-Ba
A. Bonell: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
N. Brink: Wits Planetary Health Research, University of the Witwatersrand
C. Caminade: Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
C. J. Carlson: Yale University
R. Carter: University of Washington
P. Chua: University of Tokyo
G. Cissé: Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire (CSRS)
F. J. Colón-González: Wellcome Trust
S. Dasgupta: Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
L. A. Galvao: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation - Fiocruz/CRIS
M. Garrido Zornoza: Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
A. Gasparrini: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
G. Gordon-Strachan: University of the West Indies
S. Hajat: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
S. Harper: University of Alberta
L. J. Harrington: University of Waikato
M. Hashizume: University of Washington
J. Hess: University of Washington
J. Hilly: University of New South Wales
V. Ingole: Office For National Statistics
L. V. Jacobson: Fluminense Federal University
T. Kapwata: South African Medical Research Council
C. Keeler: University of Washington
S. A. Kidd: University of Toronto
E. W. Kimani-Murage: African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
R. K. Kolli: International Monsoons Project Office
S. Kovats: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
S. Li: The University of Sheffield
R. Lowe: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
D. Mitchell: University of Bristol
K. Murray: MRC Unit The Gambia @ LSHTM
M. New: University of Cape Town
O. E. Ogunniyi: University of Cape Town
S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick: Australian National University
J. Pescarini: Instituto Gonçalo Moniz - FIOCRUZ-Ba
B. L. Pineda Restrepo: Andean Health Agency-Hipólito Unanue
S. T. R. Pinho: Federal University of Bahia
V. Prescott: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
N. Redvers: University of Western Ontario
S. J. Ryan: University of Florida
B. D. Santer: University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences
C. F. Schleussner: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
J. C. Semenza: Umeå University
M. Taylor: University of the West Indies
L. Temple: University of Oxford
S. Thiam: African Population and Health Research Center, West Africa Regional Office
W. Thiery: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Water and Climate
A. M. Tompkins: Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
S. Undorf: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera: University of Bern
K. Wan: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
R. Warren: University of East Anglia
C. Webster: South African Medical Research Council
A. Woodward: University of Auckland
C. Y. Wright: South African Medical Research Council
R. F. Stuart-Smith: University of Oxford

Climatic Change, 2025, vol. 178, issue 8, No 3, 24 pages

Abstract: Abstract For over 30 years, detection and attribution (D&A) studies have informed key conclusions in international and national assessments of climate science, providing compelling evidence for the reality and seriousness of anthropogenic effects on the global climate. In the early twenty-first century, D&A methods were adapted to assess the contribution of climate change to longer-term trends in earth system processes and extreme weather events. More recently, attribution research quantified the health and economic impacts of climate change. Here we provide practical guidance to inform transdisciplinary collaboration among health, climate, and other relevant scientific disciplines and interested parties in designing, conducting, interpreting, and reporting robust and policy-relevant attribution analyses of human health outcomes. This guidance resulted from discussions among experts in health and climate science. Recommended steps include co-developing the research questions across disciplines; establishing a transdisciplinary analytic team with fundamental grounding in the core disciplines; engaging meaningfully with relevant interested parties and decision-makers to define an appropriate study design and analytic process, including defining the exposure event or trend; identifying, visualizing, and describing linkages in the causal pathway from exposure to weather/climate variables to the health outcome(s) of interest; choosing appropriate counterfactual climate data, and where applicable, to evaluate the skill of the climate and health impact model(s) used in D&A research; quantifying the attributable changes in climate variables; quantifying the attributable health impacts within the context of other determinants of exposure and vulnerability; and reporting key results, including a description of how recommendations were incorporated into the analytical plan. Implementation of guidance would benefit diverse interested parties including researchers, research funders, policymakers, and climate litigation by harmonizing methods and increasing confidence in findings.

Keywords: Detection and attribution; Health; Climate change; Methods; Guidance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-03976-7

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